Critical Change Management Phase I
ID: 5227619-30
Potential Value
$1
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
10%
Days in Pipeline
225
Client
Falcon Infrastructure Global
Account
Gateway Government Worldwide
City
Denver
Region
USLI
Sub-Sector
SLED
Service Line
Tax
Field of Play
Tax
Opportunity Sub-SL
Indirect
Competency
Indirect Tax - Core
Global Service Code
Budget Advisory (86958)
Partner
Gupta Fritz
Pursuit Leader
Brooks Karen
Open Date
Sep 30, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Mar 9, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Critical Change Management Phase I
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
82.0%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$1
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
82.0%
Model A: Planning
72.4%
Model B: Early Signal
55.2%
Stated Probability
10%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
72.4%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a high probability of winning (72%). Factors working in favor: field of play track record. Factors working against: deal age (days since open), lead sales credit %.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
55.2%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a moderate probability of winning (55%). Factors working in favor: sub-sector track record. Factors working against: service sub-line track record, market segment.