ClosingWithin 30 Days

Accelerated Talent Strategy Proof of Concept

ID: 3230947-20

Potential Value

-$250,000

Deal Value

-$250,000

Stated Probability

50%

Days in Pipeline

520

Client & Account

Client

Crimson Corporation

City

Dallas

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

FED

Service Classification

Service Line

CBS & Elim

Field of Play

Transactions

Opportunity Sub-SL

ITTS (Elim)

Competency

ITTS Transactions Related (Elim)

Global Service Code

Supply Chain Optimization (54614)

People & Dates

Partner

Nguyen Kenneth

Pursuit Leader

Davis Marcel

Open Date

Dec 9, 2024

Anticipated Win Date

Apr 15, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Accelerated Talent Strategy Proof of Concept

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

72.5%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

-$89,284

Key Triage Drivers

Opportunity business unit
+0.610
Work type
+0.604
Service sub-line track record
+0.551

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

72.5%

Model A: Planning

49.2%

Model B: Early Signal

10.1%

Stated Probability

50%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

49.2%

Key Drivers

Time in current pipeline stage
-1.493
Market segment
-1.056
Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.051

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a moderate probability of winning (49%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, market segment, brand new pursuit (vs renewal).

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

10.1%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.856
Market segment
-0.770
Service sub-line track record
+0.630

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (10%). Factors working in favor: service sub-line track record. Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), market segment.