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Optimized Talent Strategy Strategy (Amended)

ID: 7703215-20

Potential Value

$900,000

Deal Value

$0

Stated Probability

25%

Days in Pipeline

160

Client & Account

Client

Onyx Defense Dynamics

City

Chicago

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

SLED

Service Classification

Service Line

SaT

Field of Play

Strategy & Transformation

Opportunity Sub-SL

Transactions & Corporate Finance

Competency

TCF - Reimagine Reshape & Grow

Global Service Code

Identity Management - Compliance (62617)

People & Dates

Partner

Alvarez Andrea

Pursuit Leader

Lee Pamela

Open Date

Dec 4, 2025

Anticipated Win Date

Feb 27, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Optimized Talent Strategy Strategy (Amended)

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

70.4%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$149,403

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.633
Opportunity business unit
+0.408
Deal size
-0.238

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

70.4%

Model A: Planning

23.6%

Model B: Early Signal

3.5%

Stated Probability

25%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

23.6%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.276
Lead sales credit %
-0.748
Deal size vs service line median
-0.730

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (24%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %, deal size vs service line median.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

3.5%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.868
Deal size vs service line median
-0.566
Service sub-line track record
-0.530

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (3%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size vs service line median, service sub-line track record.