Regional Risk Management Modernization (Amended)
ID: 4929017-10
Potential Value
$4,000,000
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
10%
Days in Pipeline
230
Client
Momentum Public International
Account
Lion Strategic Federation
City
Dallas
Region
USLI
Sub-Sector
FED
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Supply Chain & Operations
Opportunity Sub-SL
Supply Chain & Operations´
Competency
Intelligent Operations
Global Service Code
Defense Consulting (50905)
Partner
Nelson Robert
Pursuit Leader
Murphy Eric
Open Date
Sep 25, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Dec 18, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Regional Risk Management Modernization (Amended)
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
23.8%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$165,769
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
23.8%
Model A: Planning
17.4%
Model B: Early Signal
7.4%
Stated Probability
10%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
17.4%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (17%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), time in current pipeline stage, lead sales credit %.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
7.4%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (7%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size vs service line median, market segment.