Critical Market Entry Consolidation - Phase 2
ID: 7676193-20
Potential Value
$500,000
Deal Value
$3,750,000
Stated Probability
25%
Days in Pipeline
1136
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Supply Chain & Operations
Opportunity Sub-SL
Supply Chain & Operations´
Competency
Manufacturing Transformation
Global Service Code
Equity Compensation (82271)
Partner
Rivera Sophia
Pursuit Leader
Watanabe Diane
Open Date
Apr 3, 2023
Anticipated Win Date
Sep 30, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Critical Market Entry Consolidation - Phase 2
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
32.2%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$73,791
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
32.2%
Model A: Planning
45.8%
Model B: Early Signal
12.6%
Stated Probability
25%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
45.8%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a moderate probability of winning (46%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
12.6%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (13%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size, market segment.