IdentifyOver 90 Days

Modernized Change Management Strategy - FY26

ID: 1235981-20

Potential Value

$20,000,000

Deal Value

$0

Stated Probability

10%

Days in Pipeline

196

Client & Account

Client

Aqua Civic Holdings

City

Dallas

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

SLED

Service Classification

Service Line

Consulting

Field of Play

Technology

Opportunity Sub-SL

Technology

Competency

Enterprise IT Transformation

Global Service Code

TEC-Digital Systems Evolution (20232)

People & Dates

Partner

Jimenez Magnus

Pursuit Leader

Hernandez Priya

Open Date

Oct 29, 2025

Anticipated Win Date

Nov 13, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Modernized Change Management Strategy - FY26

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

40.5%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$1,020,852

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.656
Service sub-line track record
-0.404
Opportunity business unit
+0.276

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

40.5%

Model A: Planning

12.6%

Model B: Early Signal

2.8%

Stated Probability

10%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

12.6%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.223
Time in current pipeline stage
-0.912
Deal age (days since open)
-0.722

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (13%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), time in current pipeline stage, deal age (days since open).

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

2.8%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.846
Deal size vs service line median
-0.752
Service sub-line track record
-0.578

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (3%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size vs service line median, service sub-line track record.