Dynamic Change Management Assessment - Pilot
ID: 4506534-50
Potential Value
$20,000,000
Deal Value
$20,000,000
Stated Probability
25%
Days in Pipeline
937
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Organization & People
Opportunity Sub-SL
Organization & People
Competency
People Experience
Global Service Code
Market Analysis (82042)
Partner
Bailey Feng
Pursuit Leader
Gomez Brittany
Open Date
Oct 19, 2023
Anticipated Win Date
Mar 31, 2027
Close Date
N/A
Description
Dynamic Change Management Assessment - Pilot
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
40.1%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$2,943,272
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
40.1%
Model A: Planning
36.7%
Model B: Early Signal
4.8%
Stated Probability
25%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
36.7%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (37%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
4.8%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (5%). Factors working against: service sub-line track record, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size vs service line median.