Core Market Entry Optimization (Amended)
ID: 7934471-50
Potential Value
$1
Deal Value
$10
Stated Probability
50%
Days in Pipeline
112
Service Line
SaT
Field of Play
Strategy & Transformation
Opportunity Sub-SL
Transactions & Corporate Finance
Competency
TCF - Reimagine Reshape & Grow
Global Service Code
Regulatory Compliance (61122)
Partner
Aguilar Jean-Paul
Pursuit Leader
Nguyen Olivia
Open Date
Jan 21, 2026
Anticipated Win Date
Mar 31, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Core Market Entry Optimization (Amended)
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
79.2%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$0
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
79.2%
Model A: Planning
22.3%
Model B: Early Signal
20.0%
Stated Probability
50%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
22.3%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (22%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal age (days since open), lead sales credit %.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
20.0%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (20%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), sub-sector track record, market segment.